How the clock is derivedUAS Ecosystem Risk Index (UERI) — 8 factors, updated daily by the PIE pipeline
20 pts
Flag Severity Pressure
Count of critical and warning flags generated by PIE across all 42 component categories. Sourced from Forge parts DB, gray zone analysis, and procurement data.
15 pts
Supply Chain Availability
Weighted supply risk per category: China-origin percentage, NDAA compliance gap, and real in-stock availability checked daily via RDQ Shopify API and GetFPV. Boosted by Census Bureau HS-code import data when available.
15 pts
Gray Zone Saturation
Average risk score across tracked gray zone entities (Anzu Robotics, Autel, SkyRover/Knowact, Cogito Tech/SPECTA). Scores derived from identity wash indicators, component passthrough analysis, and federal procurement records.
12 pts
Prediction Risk
Weighted average of active LLM-generated predictions, scaled by probability × impact. Critical predictions (FCC firmware cliff, Orin allocation) carry 3× weight. Calibrated by Brier score as predictions resolve.
10 pts
Contract Velocity
Rate of UAS-relevant federal awards per 30-day window from USAspending.gov. Low procurement velocity relative to open solicitations signals budget friction or market failure.
10 pts
Price Pressure
Percentage of tracked categories with >5% price increase vs prior snapshot. Sourced from daily median price computation across 4,000+ parts in the Forge DB.
10 pts
Regulatory Pipeline
Active regulatory, legal, and legislative flags: FCC Covered List deadlines, court docket changes (DJI Ninth Circuit 26-1029, TX AG v. Anzu), and state procurement ban legislation tracked via CourtListener and LegiScan.
8 pts
Intel Velocity
7-day article rate across 15+ defense and UAS intelligence sources. A velocity spike vs. baseline indicates an active crisis; sustained low velocity may signal a data blind spot.