DRONE DOMINANCE
PROGRAM TRACKER
⚠ G-I did not include EW jamming or C-UAS countermeasures in scored scenarios — a noted gap. Phase II introduces these elements plus a hard ban on Chinese motors/batteries. "The Gauntlet I leaderboard is not a statement about the best drones in the industry... it is a snapshot of how invited vendors performed against warfighter-designed mission vignettes." — DDP Program Office
Eval: Feb 17 – Mar 4, 2026
Orders: $150M · 30,000 units
Max price: $5,000/unit
Vendors: 25 invited · 11 winners
Delivery target: Jul 2026
Orders: ~$250M · 60,000 units
Max price: ~$4,000/unit
Vendors: Down to ~10
NEW: Chinese motors/batteries banned
EW scenarios added
Orders: ~$400M · 100,000 units
Max price: ~$3,200/unit
Vendors: Down to ~7
Advanced autonomy scenarios
Swarm performance evaluated
Orders: $345M · 150,000 units
Max price: $2,300/unit
Vendors: Final 3–5
Full NDAA-clean BoM required
~$142M total per finalist
Click any row to expand full competitor intelligence profile.
| # | Company / Platform | G-I Score | Unit Cost Est. | G-I Status | G-II Win Prob |
|---|
Analyst assessment of G-II outcomes based on G-I performance, compliance posture, production scale, and capitalization depth. G-II introduces EW/jamming scenarios, bans Chinese motors & batteries (~Aug 2026 cutoff), scales to 60,000 units at ~$4,000/unit ceiling. Field narrows from 11 to ~10 vendors. Probabilities are qualitative estimates — not official program data.
G-I did not deploy RF jammers — a major gap that underrepresented fiber-optic advantage and overrepresented RF-based platforms. G-II adds active EW countermeasures as a scored scenario.
Winners: Skycutter/Shrike Fiber (EW-immune by design), Neros Archer Fiber (if production-ready), ModalAI (GPS-denied nav survives jamming).
Losers: Any RF-only platform without EW-resistant GCS. Standard Archer RF vulnerable — Neros must field Archer Fiber to maintain score.
Phase II hard gate: motors and batteries from covered countries (China) are disqualifying. Companies have ~4 months from G-I results to restructure supply chains.
Already clean: Neros (NDAA-audited), Griffon (aerospace supply chain), Ascent (domestic mfg). Low transition cost.
High risk: Ukrainian Defense Drones (deeply Chinese-dependent BOM), Auterion (complex open-architecture BoM audit), any company relying on T-Motor / iFlight BLDC motors.
G-II doubles the order to 60,000 units at a lower $4K ceiling. Production readiness becomes a scored gate — not just a tiebreaker. Companies that fail to deliver G-I 30K orders on time are implicitly penalized.
Best positioned: Neros (1,500–2,000/mo now, 10K/mo target), Ascent (rated most production-ready), Griffon (existing DoD mfg infrastructure).
Question marks: Napatree, Halo, Farage, Nokturnal AI — no public production data. 60K unit requirement likely exposes undercapitalized vendors.
△ EW/jamming scenarios added — RF-only platforms will be scored against active electronic attack. Fiber-optic and GPS-denied systems gain significant advantage.
△ Volume increases 2× — 60,000 units at ≤$4,000/unit. Production scale and capitalization become scored criteria, not just compliance gates.
+ New entrants allowed — companies that missed G-I (including Orqa) can submit RFS and compete. Estimated ~5–8 new vendors likely to enter.
~AUG 2026 — Chinese motor/battery ban enforcement begins
~AUG 2026 — G-II test package due (~20 drones, 8 GCS per vendor)
~SEP 2026 — Gauntlet II evaluation window (est.)
~OCT 2026 — G-II orders announced (~$250M, 60K units)
~MAR 2027 — G-III evaluation (est., field → ~7 vendors)
All non-qualifying vendors remain eligible for Gauntlet II and subsequent phases. New vendors may also apply per program rules. Non-qualification in G-I does not reflect final program standing — G-II introduces different scenarios (EW, urban CAS) that may favor different platforms.
Gauntlet II Entry Path
Orqa did not compete in G-I — the IronGhost-based MRM2-10 platform was not on the 25-vendor invite list. G-II represents the first viable entry point, contingent on Blue UAS accession and RFS submission to OSW-dronedominance@mail.mil.
The Chinese component ban beginning G-II is a potential advantage — Orqa's Croatian manufacturing and H743-based flight stack avoids the primary DJI/BLDC motor supply chain risk that threatens several current G-I winners.
Key delta: 8.5 GHz RF preference, CLIK payload interface, and multi-drone single-operator C2 are all confirmed Gauntlet scored metrics (Camp Blanding intelligence, Jan 2026).
Critical Gaps vs. G-I Winners
- No MANET/mesh radio integration confirmed — Silvus or TrellisWare TW-950 required for EW resilience
- Fiber-optic variant not in current product roadmap — Shrike Fiber's 99.3 score validates this architecture
- Blue UAS accession not yet complete — blocks prototype order eligibility
- Production rate scaling unclear — G-II winners need capacity for 60K units at $4K ceiling
- Warhead integration / CLIK payload interface not public — needed for kinetic strike bonus